China is witnessing the rewards of its substantial investments in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with a 71% year-on-year surge in refined copper imports from the central African nation. In 2024, shipments reached 1.48 million metric tons, cementing Congo as China’s largest supplier of refined copper and significantly influencing global copper trade dynamics.
Chinese operators dominate Congo’s copper belt and the flow of metal between the two countries is emerging as a new structural dynamic in the global market.
While this development strengthens China’s supply chain security, it has the potential to complicate the interpretation of China’s copper import data as an indicator of domestic demand.
Import Strength
China’s copper imports have been highly dynamic in recent years. An unusual wave of Chinese exports disrupted the copper market in 2023, with 17,000 tons sent to the U.S. and the majority directed to London Metal Exchange (LME) warehouses in South Korea and Taiwan. This surge capitalized on a price spike caused by a squeeze on the CME copper contract.
The unusual outbound flows slowed in the second half of 2023, but copper imports accelerated by the end of 2024. China’s total refined copper imports rose 8.6% year-on-year to 4.04 million tons, the second-highest annual level after the 4.67 million tons imported in 2020.
Domestic production also grew strongly in 2024, with a 5.4% increase, equating to an additional 620,000 tons, according to Shanghai Metal Market. The combination of higher imports and rising domestic production signals a recovery in demand, although this is not clearly reflected in broader economic indicators or copper prices.
The combination of strong domestic production and high imports signals a demand recovery that is not confirmed by either macroeconomic indicators or by the copper price.
Congo’s Copper Surge
China’s copper imports may be rising simply because Congo’s production is rising and the country’s output goes by default to China.
The Democratic Republic of Congo’s copper production, largely dominated by Chinese operators, has been expanding rapidly. China’s CMOC Group boosted its copper output by 55% year-on-year to 650,000 tons in 2024, with cobalt as a by-product. This surge in supply has lifted Congo to the position of the second-largest copper producer globally, surpassing Peru and second only to Chile.
Chilean copper, which once dominated China’s import mix, dropped to an 18-year low of 578,000 tons in 2024, accounting for just 14.3% of China’s total imports. Meanwhile, Congo’s share of Chinese copper imports has grown significantly, climbing from 10% in 2020 to 36.7% in 2024, with December’s 167,735 tons of imports setting a new monthly record.
Even as projects like the Lobito Corridor, which connects Congo’s mines to Angola’s Lobito port, offer possibilities for export diversification, Chinese-owned mines are expected to continue prioritizing shipments to China unless alternative markets offer stronger financial incentives.
Limited Exchange Options for Congo’s Copper
The trade flow from Congo to China is unlikely to shift toward exchange delivery due to limited options.
CME has no registered brands of DRC copper and the LME has only two – ‘SCM’ and ‘COMIKA’. They represent 122,400 tons of annual production, which is a drop in Congo’s copper production.
At the end of 2024, registered LME stocks of Congo copper totaled just 3,775 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange lacks registered Congo brands entirely. As such, Congo’s copper tends to trade at a discount in the Chinese domestic market, bypassing visible exchange stocks and heading directly to the physical market.
The lack of exchange delivery options has caused Congo’s supply surge to bypass visible stocks and head straight for the shadows of the Chinese physical market.
Conclusion
Congo’s rapid production growth is reshaping global copper trade flows, with China emerging as the primary destination for Congo’s refined metal. As Congo’s copper output expands, its role in China’s supply chain security will only deepen, regardless of fluctuations in Chinese demand.
The Congo-China copper trade has not only solidified Congo’s position as a major global supplier but also altered the dynamics of the copper market, creating a new structural shift that will continue to evolve in the coming years.
